Defending Meteorology

From NBC CT

There must be something about human nature that allows us to remember the bumps in the road more than the overall journey.   Meteorologists are seldom judged by their overall accuracy rate, but rather by the missed calls.    For the New York City metro area, what was billed as an approaching "historic storm" by meteorologists and local leaders failed to deliver much of a punch.   Facebook friends in that area equated meteorology with fortune telling.   A few weather forecasters even apologized.   Is that necessary?    No apologies were needed in my neck of the woods.  This latest winter storm arrived with relatively little advance notice, but it definitely lived up to expectations in eastern Connecticut and points north and east of here.   Several computer models misread the impact on New York City, but a newer type of model was proven more accurate.   Next time they may pay more attention to the new model.   Technology has improved dramatically since the unforeseen monster storms of 1888 and 1938 and continues a rapid advance.   While many lives have been saved, the future is still a tricky proposition.   We are reminded of our limitations in so many realms of scientific progress, but weather predictions have come a long way.   

I recall when media coverage of weather consisted of presenters with next to nothing for a meteorological background.   Some were hired because they could draw cartoon characters on a weather map.   Now the local stations have a real team of actual meteorologists backed by technology.   Still, I wonder if some of the nonstop hype is over the top, especially when they start with gimmicks like naming every storm.   Brag about your accuracy, not about equipment all your competitors also have.  There's a popular myth about meteorologists being unlike the rest of because they actually get paid to be wrong most of the time.   That's just wrong.   I've known enough weather people to know that they are well educated and take their job and our safety very seriously.   They do it with a remarkable batting average.    Judging forecasters' reliability by one storm is about as shortsighted as saying one cold spell disproves global warming.   Don't get me started on that one!